My Case Against Playoffs
(Promoted from fanposts. This is in response to story below. -mlm)
I am not necessarily a BCS proponent, I just play one on this site defend it against arguments that I feel are flawed or unfair. One of the most frustrating and perhaps baffling aspects of this ongoing debate is that the supporters of a move to a playoff system never have to defend their "solution". Potential shortcomings of the BCS a paraded without end during the season and, on the rare occasion that there still exists one when it's all said and done, they are trumpeted as final proof that it is an epic failure that needs to be scraped. Playoffs are hailed as clean, fair and absolute, but they're never tested, while twisted hypotheticals are used to point out the precarious nature of the BCS. So, let me flip the script and put the playoffs to the test; I think you'll be shocked by the chaos that ensues.
In a four-team playoff, Oklahoma and Florida would receive the top two seeds, but which of the following pairs of teams get left out: Texas and Alabama (despite being ranked in the final top four, they failed to win their respective conferences), USC and Penn State (highly regarded one-loss BCS conference champs - like the Sooners and Gators - ranked outside of the final top four), Utah and Boise State (undefeated non-BCS conference champs outside of the final top four)? In other words, instead of just Texas (and possibly USC) having a legitimate gripe with the BCS, at least four schools would have been screaming bloody murder at the end of this season.
In an eight-team playoff, Oklahoma, Florida, USC, Utah and Penn State would be guaranteed their spots, but which of the following groups of three teams would fill out the bracket: Texas, Alabama and Texas Tech (despite being ranked in the final top eight, they failed to win their respective conferences) or Boise State, Cincinnati and Virginia Tech (the three best conference champions ranked outside of the final top eight)? If you went the "conference champions" route (as would likely be necessary for such a system to be adopted), then what about all of the teams that had better seasons than four-loss VT (at least ten would be left out) or arguably two-loss Cincinnati (at least five of the ones already pissed about VT)? A minimum of three schools would have been shafted under any variant of this system and most likely many more than that.
Playoff proponents often like to attack the BCS, but rarely defend their solution to the so-called cancer that plagues college football. If we had a plus one this year and Oklahoma won it by beating Penn State and Florida/USC, but Texas defeated Alabama in a non-playoff bowl game, would there still not be questions about whether or not the Sooners were better than the Longhorns or if they even deserved their playoff slot ahead of UT? And if you went with just the top four and we had a rematch between Bama and Florida or Texas and Oklahoma that went the opposite way as their regular season match-ups, would anything really be resolved since they'd just be 1-1 on neutral fields with no significant point differential? What if Utah and/or Boise State completed their undefeated seasons with quality bowl wins? If it was an 8-team tournament and the same thing happened with OU and UT, would it not be the same?
The bottomline is this: playoffs are another, equally flawed, answer to the question of how college football should determine its ultimate champion. If you want to argue that they're more fun for fans (though it will certainly take away from the intensity of the regular season), that's fine and I accept that. But to say that they're more fair, cleaner or produce undisputed champions is just not true. Again I ask: does anyone think the New York Giants were a better team than the New England Patriots in the NFL last year? you can point to a Super Bowl that went right down to the wire and I can point to another close game on the final weak of the regular season that went to the other way to prove that they were pretty evenly matched teams. For you baseball fans, were the Cards the best team in MLB in 2006 and were the Rockies the best team in the NL in 2007 or did they just get hot at the right time and take advantage of a system that rewards games late in the year over those played earlier?
Feel free to prove me wrong on any and all of these counts. As always, I aim to start a healthy and civil discussion with you all because I respect your opinions and intelects, as I hope you do mine. Thanks for taking the time to read through this rant and I'd especially appreciate any comment or questions you may have. Cheers and go Gators!
Please be kind and use good grammar.
Comments
Scrap the conference champions auto-bid then.
Do we really think that the Orange Bowl is the best available teams this year?
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Dec 13, 2008 12:10 PM EST
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Theory v. Practice.
That works best (it’s still not perfect – see: State, Boise) but it won’t happen in real life. The more balanced (or weaker, if you prefer) power conferences will never agree to a system that could lock their champions out under any circumstances. They would get support from everywhere that the non-BCS teams did when they were lobbying to be let into the BCS party, if it were to happen.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on
Dec 13, 2008 2:48 PM EST
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Baseball comparison doesn't really work, because baseball itself is a completely different game.
Stretch the playoffs out then, either with alternating by weeks for either side of the bracket, or with more games. I have no problem with it ending in February.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Dec 13, 2008 12:13 PM EST
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*bye weeks, not by weeks
Only issue I could see with a longer season would be interfering with basketball, which is really too long anyways. Shorten the basketball season to 20 games played over two months starting in November, and then the conference championships in January. College football in February, let basketball have their meaningless tourneys that are usually held in the preseason now, so that teams have a chance to prep for the Big Dance. Give the selection committee a full month to pick the 65 teams, and announce them the day after the football championship. March Madness begins, riding on the fun of the football playoffs.
Clutch: A measurement of how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on
Dec 13, 2008 12:19 PM EST
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You Might Not, But...
The players, coaches, etc. will all have a problem with a season that lasts that much longer and adds that many more games. It would basically destroy any semblance of Winter Break for student-athletes, force them to condition harder and start that earlier (weaker conditioning is why rookies hit a wall in the NFL) and several other things would have to change for the worse that I can’t even think of just now. Ideally we could just keep adding weeks to the season to produce more certainty with championships and give us more fun games, but it’s just not that easy.
Re: Cross-sport comps. The truth is that college football is unique because it tries to select a single champion out of 119 teams, most of which don’t ever play each other or have anyone on their schedule that plays anyone on someone else’s schedule.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on
Dec 13, 2008 2:55 PM EST
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Again I ask: does anyone think the New York Giants were a better team than the New England Patriots in the NFL last year? you can point to a Super Bowl that went right down to the wire and I can point to another close game on the final weak of the regular season that went to the other way to prove that they were pretty evenly matched teams.
I will open this up by saying I am a Patriots fanatic. I do believe that the Giants were the better team by that point in the season than New England. Their move of Justin Tuck to the defensive tackle made them a better team single handidly. New England had no answer for that defensive line of Osi, Strahan and Tuck. The Giants are top to bottom the most talented NFL team going and they were the better team at the end of the year.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on
Dec 13, 2008 1:30 PM EST
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I Politely Disagree.
I believe that the Giants strength and the Patriots relative weakness this season informs this impression too much. New York needed a ridiculous play (Manning escaping the sack and then the Tyree helmet catch on a crucial 3rd and 5) to string together an improbable 12 play, 83 yard TD drive to take the final three-point lead with just 2:42 left in the game. To me, that’s a pretty even match-up, especially when you consider their earlier game (a three-point New England win at the Meadowlands on the final week of the regular season). If the 2007 Pats and the 2007 Giants played 100 times, I’d be surprised if the final win-loss tally ended up far from 50/50. Outside of their heads-up parity (a factor of match-up, not necessarily overall skill or performance) New England ran the table and New York was a six-loss team. Moreover, the final three teams that the 2007 Giants beat in the postseason had already beaten them in the regular season (Dallas did it twice) by an average margin of 11.5, which is more than their total margin of victory in those playoff rematches. There is just no way that anyone can convince me that the New York Giants were the best team in the NFL in the 2007 season; they were simply rewarded by a system that devalues the regular season and rewards the teams that are hottest towards the end of the year. Were the playoffs fun and, the Giants’ Cinderella run especially, exciting? Sure. But were they fair to the better teams (three of them) that had already defeated those same Giants earlier in the year? I don’t think so. Did they produce a “true” champion? Again, I politely disagree.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on
Dec 13, 2008 2:41 PM EST
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Your overall argument seems to be
that unless a system is completely fair, it is completely unfair. The playoff examples you give (of a 5th place or 9th place team being left out) aren’t equally as flawed as the BCS. They’re still flawed perhaps in that not every team that could potentially win a playoff is included, but they are less flawed than a system that only includes two teams.
The “what about 5th place team X?” argument always gets made to argue against a +1, but that’s viewing the +1 system in a vacuum. That 5th place team isn’t even sniffing a shot at the title in the BCS system. Any playoff system would have to be judged not just on how well it works on its own merit, but on how much it improves on the BCS. Even a +1 improves significantly on the BCS by giving two more teams a shot at the title.
Any playoff system of course includes the possibility that team A with, say, 2 losses, beats an undefeated team B and by virtue of that one game team A wins the championship. Of course if this identical game happened in November, many would argue, team B would likely stay ranked above team A; the only reason team A wins out at the last is because of a myth that the “playoffs” somehow count more or differently than the regular season. This is a necessary myth though in order for any sport to have a playoff system. Of course if you look at the Patriots and Giants overall seasons, the Patriots were the better team. And someday years from now when “experts” compile lists of the great all-time teams, the Patriots will likely be listed above the Giants. But the Giants get to call themselves “champions.” This doesn’t mean the system of choosing a champion in the NFL is flawed I don’t think—I think it means that in order to have a champion in a sport, you have to have some playoff system, and that playoff system is going to allow for results such as the NFL had last year. Still, the Patriots had their shot to be called champs and, on the field of play, lost out. At least a college playoff with more than 2 teams would give more teams that chance that the Patriots had.
by Gator Cub on
Dec 13, 2008 2:49 PM EST
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Clarification.
In a four-team playoff world: “instead of just Texas (and possibly USC) having a legitimate gripe with the BCS, at least four schools would have been screaming bloody murder at the end of this season”. In an eight team playoff world: “A minimum of three schools would have been shafted under any variant of this system and most likely many more than that”. In other words, the BCS slighted one(Texas) maybe two (USC) teams this year, whereas the playoffs would cause an uproar at anywhere from three to ten schools and just about anywhere in between depending on the variant selected. So, you’re not trading 3rd place in the BCS for 5th or 9th place in a playoff, but rather one or two teams trying to get into one game versus many more teams with legitimate claims for a playoff spot. Another way to look at it is this: there are many fewer great teams (usually the only ones that become candidates for the BCS) than there are very good ones (which would be candidates for a playoff). I hope that’s clear now.
I like your train of thought about playoffs and champions, but I feel like I need to think about it further to reply. I will say that, in the end, playoffs give only two teams the right to play for the championship (other teams can try and fail, not unlike the college football regular season) and that the BCS is itself a one-game playoff of sorts. I know that probably doesn’t make sense on first read (and might not to some ever) but I swear it does in my head and I probably just have to explain it better. Thanks for the thoughtful comment, though, and I look forward to your reply to mine.
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on
Dec 13, 2008 3:08 PM EST
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I still don't agree with the gripe argument
While it’s true that the 6th and 7th place teams might be able to make an argument that they should be 4th, they would have merited NO consideration for the top two under the BCS scenario. I just don’t see how being more inclusive fails to make a system more fair. In NCAA basketball the top 30ish teams are at-large selections for the playoffs, which means every year about 5-6 teams seem to claim a legitimate gripe over their non-selection. A system in college basketball that picked only the 4 or 8 best teams, leaving only 2 or 3 teams with a legitimate gripe for non-selection, is certainly less fair, just as the BCS is less fair than any system that includes more teams.
The BCS is definitely a playoff, just as MLB had a two-team playoff before the divisions were created in the 60s. It’s just that with 120 teams (about half of which play in BCS conferences) and only 12 games for each team, winding up with 2 clearcut playoff participants happens only rarely (see: 2005). I like your point that any playoff ultimately boils down to only 2 teams, but at least a more inclusive playoff would allow the top teams to actually play against each other in order to narrow it down to two teams, as opposed to the current BCS system which forces voters to choose only 2 teams based on teams’ “resumes” that often include no common opponents.
by Gator Cub on
Dec 13, 2008 3:21 PM EST
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Since the Presidents of the Universities
will never allow a playoff of more than 6 teams that does not include all the BCS conference champs, I am starting to like the 12 team playoff model, with the top 4 teams getting byes. This way you can have your 6 autobids, and then plenty of room for conference runners up and mid-major schools.
SI.com is using this method for their brand of the Pretend Playoff that every site puts up this time of year, and the bracket is an endless string of dream matchups. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/football/ncaa/12/11/ultimateplayoff.secondround/index.html
Of course then you hit the REAL stumbling block of any playoff proposal: where the hell do you play these 11 games? The best idea I think is to eliminate the 12th regular season game and move conference championships to Thanksgiving weekend. Yes this messes with some traditional Thanksgiving rivalries. Oh well. Then play the first two rounds on the first two weekends of December at the better-seeded team’s home field. This gives each top 8 team one home game in the playoffs.
Then the bowls come back into play. Everyone who did not make the final 4 (including the 8 teams that lost in the first two rounds of the playoffs) get slotted into the traditional bowls (which are made no less meaningful than they already are). The final four games are then played the first two weekends of January. And you can even throw in a consolation 3rd place game to make the 4th BCS Bowl happy.
by Gator Cub on
Dec 13, 2008 3:12 PM EST
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Interesting...
I’ve never considered a 12-team playoff before. I’ll look into it and let you know what I think. Thanks for the link!
Here we go again: http://thefulldeck.blogspot.com/
by ejruiz on
Dec 13, 2008 3:16 PM EST
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I stumbled upon it
trying to avoid studying for finals, and it immediately struck me as reasonable. I think it’s Brian Cook who advocate’s the 6 team playoff with no auto bids and byes for the top two, but I think in a perfect world that that is too underinclusive. The 8 team playoff is not bad, but I still like Brian’s idea of byes and home field to reward higher seeded teams (which helps counter the “playoffs make the regular season less meaningful” argument). And I think a 16 team bracket is too many teams. So I thought SI’s bracket struck a nice balance.
Plus, because “fun for the fans” is always a good argument, look at some of those amazing matchups!
by Gator Cub on
Dec 13, 2008 3:26 PM EST
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32 Teams
Reconfigure the conferences:
10 – 12 team conferences, 12-10 team conferences, 15 -8 team conferences.
Screw rankings. Go by conference record only. This will get rid of scheduling cup cake teams in non conference because the win or loss won’t matter. Eliminate the bye weeks and conference championships. Take 32 teams and see who is left standing. Making it through the playoffs is not just about the most talented team. It’s about hard work, determination, resiliency, coaching…. The best team does not always have the best players. Companies can sponsor the rounds of the playoff according to level and payout. Games can be played at neutral sites to cut down on travel costs and help school attendance.
by Raider75 on
Jan 4, 2009 6:53 PM EST
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