Calm Down, It's Just National Signing Day

by mlmintampa on Feb 3, 2009 1:00 AM EST in Florida Football

The title is a hint as to how I view National Signing Day. My enthusiasm for National Signing Day is only matched by my enthusiasm for women's basketball or peeling dead skin off of sunburns.

For every Tim Tebow there is a Xavier Lee. For every Brandon Spikes there is a Willie Williams. Florida has been spared an epic flameout like Lee or Williams, although the 2005 class of Avery Atkins (committed suicide after getting kicked out), Josh Portis (suspected cheater) and Ronnie Wilson (Iraqi-style gun play, fighting people) wasn't exactly busting the doors. And there is always the Bull, Taurean Charles, who was sent away by the Gators after trying to beat someone up with a beer keg. He also once tried to beat up a girl. Charles ended up at Bethune Cookman and was undrafted.

The common theme for these athletes is maturity. Or a lack of it. Players will mature over the course of 3 or 4 seasons, but unless there is some maturity at the beginning, the demands of Division 1 football or the demons that everyone encounters in college can bring them down.

Enter Andre Debose; Florida's star recruit. Who took a trip to FSU last weekend. I understand how stressful the selection process is. But at this point in the game, after a declaration on ESPN, what is the purpose of a visit to a blood rival of your "declared" school? A free meal? I'm all for a free meal, but Orlando-to-Tally is a long trip for that. I don't care if the kid runs a 3.9 40. If he's not mature enough, then he won't be successful.

Percy Harvin was one of those guys who was immature in high school. Getting in fights with officials would send red flags, unless you have superhuman speed. Harvin grew up though and will leave Florida as a success.

As much as we'd like to believe that high school seniors are grown men, they are no where close. It does not matter if you are a stud linebacker from Miami or a straight-A student from Tampa, you are not an adult your freshman year in college. Both of our hypothetical people have the same chance of getting kicked out of UF. (I know someone who qualifies as the second person.) As we head into another signing day, all of us, from the creepy fat guys from Scout and Rivals that video high school practices to those who have Debose's highlight video on our YouTube favorites, have to understand this. Our obcession with college football is fine, but it's spread to high school and middle school in college basketball. Perhaps a little moderation is in order.

Of course, that won't happen. For most of us, our mood rises and falls not with the amount attention we get from the opposite sex, but from how much UF is winning by. But, unless there is a gamebreaker player like Tebow or Reggie Bush out there, Wednesday will not change anything. And Debose is a long way from those two.

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Eh...

Your arguement that recruiting is a total crapshoot has been largely debunked by those willing to do the research, like Dr. Saturday. As for the rest of the post, I just don’t get it. DeBose can be a gamechanger and the fact that our receiving corps is a bit thin coupled with Meyer’s willingness to play frosh means that he might make an immediate impact comparable to Percy’s. Overall, I think that comp is accurate, but the thing is that it seems to counter your larger point. I’m looking forward to signing day. If it’s not your cup of tea, then that’s cool, but it certainly makes a difference.

by ejruiz on Feb 3, 2009 1:24 AM EST reply actions

Well,

I’ve read those posts by Dr. Saturday. In then we find that just over 7% of 5-star recruits end up All-Americans. That would indicate that for every Tebow, a 5-star who achieved greatness, there are 13 other 5-star guys who don’t. One out of fourteen is a lot better than the odds for players who get fewer stars, but it’s still not an overwhelmingly great number.

The most anyone gets is four or five of these five-star players, which means on average (at best) you get an All-American from then once every three years. That’s not a full-on crapshoot, but it’s not spectacular either.

by Year2 on Feb 3, 2009 8:24 AM EST up reply actions

Eh.

A 5-star guy is 4.7 times more likely to become an All-American than a 4-star guy, 11.3 times more likely than a 3-star and 67.4 times more than a 2-star or worse. Also, the corolation between total recruiting points and wins is strong. Recruiting matters and the rankings/ratings are solid.

by ejruiz on Feb 4, 2009 2:58 AM EST up reply actions

yeah

a little disappointing that other sites like Roll Bama Roll have recruiting day threads of hundreds hundreds of comments and up to the second updates, while we’re kind of pedestrian at best about this big day.

In case anyone was wondering – we did sign both our 5 star recruits that were rumored to be backing out to consider FSU. Whew.

by skigator93 on Feb 4, 2009 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Jenkins

Is a Gator. Jelani Jenkins is the top rated outside LB – he’s a huge one that just caused our class to shoot up the rankings….

by skigator93 on Feb 4, 2009 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

We’ve had a fair number of washouts recently, but pretty much all of our key guys have been stand-up citizens. I was worried about Harvin coming in -he didn’t have a sparkling reputation, as you noted – but he developed into a model player.

You’re right that ratings for an individual player are no guarantee, but as ejruiz pointed out, class ratings do seem to correlate with success, at least for the upper tier. Fretting over landing at any particular spot in the final rankings is silly, but for a team with national aspirations, there’s a significant difference between top five and top fifteen.

by peachy rex on Feb 3, 2009 2:31 AM EST reply actions

No guarantee

But I like our chances a hell of a lot better with 5 and 4 star athletes than a bunch of 3 star guys. I also don’t like the prospect of losing the nation’s top recruits to our bitter rivals – let alone when that rival has been floundering in mediocrity for the past 1/2 decade!!

by skigator93 on Feb 3, 2009 10:03 AM EST reply actions

NSD 2009

MLM, well-written post. As opposed to Ron Zook (who I refuse to call a “master recruiter” for many reasons), Urban Meyer is more wise as to who he offers scholarships to, addresses needs on our roster, and based on what you had mentioned regarding past disciplinary problems is, I suspect, paying a lot more attention to character issues this time around.

There will likely be rumblings and rants after we sign our complete class tomorrow based on who signs an LOI and who goes elsewhere, but as I see it Meyer not only wants the best talent out there, he wants the RIGHT guys to come to Florida. To bring somebody in only to lose them to academic ineligibility or disciplinary problems is futile.

by O-town Gator on Feb 3, 2009 1:29 PM EST reply actions

Agreed

I’m thankful to be one of those who actually is stimulated more by my wife than by College Football.

That said, NSD is simply the latest sales job for colleges and sports media to sell product and ramp up revenue. Sure, we all want faster and stronger guys. Who doesn’t? It’s a “Duh” question. But I’ve watched FSU lose a teamload of starters to issues, and guys they should have cut but we’re too ball less too, and those scholarships were wasted. Meyer wants guys who play within his system, not necessarily “stars”. In that regard he clearly is brighter than Bobby Bowden.

by Aardvark on Feb 3, 2009 3:05 PM EST reply actions

[ahem] Preston?

For those children who claimed they’ve been a fan of their favorite team all their life, or even since they were about four or five years old: bullshit. There’s always that certain event or certain player that draws to the sport and draws you to a team. For me, Nomar Garciaparra was that reason. - Nick Coviello: I Try To See Rocco, But All I Think Is Nomar; 1/9/09

by bdalebs on Feb 3, 2009 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

Spoken like a Ute fan

We don’t expect you to get hyped up over NSD when the best athletes in the land will all sign at schools other than yours. That isn’t a dig, just an observation that your team is made later on in the summer, when your players must gel together to be successful. Our future will be forged tomorrow. We need the best athletes in the land to compete with the SEC schedule we play. We don’t expect you to full grasp the concept.

by skigator93 on Feb 3, 2009 11:25 PM EST up reply actions

Yes . . .

Why the bitterness?

Meh. Travel outside the South as a conference once in awhile and I’ll be impressed. Until then, keep making excuses about how brave you are. If every game we played was where we hang out? You’d hate coming to see us as well. I was looking over SEC schedules—8 home games for some teams and history is worse?

Yes, Tennessee played so well against our dog, Wyoming at UT. Wyoming won 4 games, 3 outside the conference.

The SEC has great teams at the top and some also rans—guess what: so does every other conference.

The talent does reside in the south, I expect your teams to be better, is there another explanation?

No, not really.

by Aardvark on Feb 5, 2009 10:18 AM EST up reply actions

God, I hope I don't qualify for the second person.

The straight-A’s from Tampa, yes. The getting-kicked-out-of-the-best-school-EVER, no.

by bdalebs on Feb 3, 2009 8:58 PM EST reply actions

Stay away from weed, don’t beat someone up so bad the cops are called, and for the love of God don’t drink and drive. A DUI is your ticket to community college.

mlmintampa
UF C/O 06

by mlmintampa on Feb 4, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions