Chomping At Bits: Is Florida On The 2012 NCAA Tournament Bubble?
by Andy Hutchins on Jan 30, 2012 9:01 AM EST
in Chomping At Bits
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Apparently, Florida's a bubble team, sort of: Okay, so USA TODAY has a new bubble tracker out that charts teams that are "in position for a bid" or "battling for the Big Dance" or "on the bubble," and the Gators, 17-4 with losses on the road to two teams that have held the No. 1 and No. 2 rankings this year and wins over three top-50 RPI teams, are in the "battling for the Big Dance" section, while Alabama (14-7, 1-4 in its last five) and Vanderbilt (16-5, with home losses to Cleveland State and Indiana State) are "in position for a bid."
The graphic explains that Florida is "in line for a spot in the field," but notes as weaknesses that Florida's worst loss was to Tennessee, and that the Gators' non-conference strength of schedule is only 94th despite games against Ohio State, Syracuse, and Texas A&M away from home and games with Florida State, Arizona, and Yale at home. This defies any sort of rational analysis, I think, and though it doesn't matter even one whit — Florida's RPI is 15, and no top-20 RPI team has ever missed the NCAA Tournament, apparently — it really made me mad.
I would throw in a gratuitous crack about Gannett's new deal with Big Lead Sports if I thought any of you cared (disclosure none of you could possibly care about: I worked as an unpaid writer for Gannett's first-ever paper, the FLORIDA TODAY, many years ago), but I like Nicole Auerbach, who apparently wrote this piece. I just think she's wrong. (Nicole Auerbach, USA TODAY)
Kenny Boynton, mellowing: Billy Donovan saying that Boynton might have been upset after scoring just two points in years past is telling, but no one questioning whether that will carry over for him is promising. (GatorZone)
Florida recruiting "prop bets": They really aren't prop bets, per se, but here are some chances that Florida targets become Gators this week. (Daniel Thompson, Bourbon Meyer)
Florida women fall: Losing games like Sunday's against Arkansas will keep these Gators out of the NCAA Tournament, you watch. (GatorZone)
As always: Talk about any and all of this and/or anything else you have to say in the comments. Need more Alligator Army in your life? Like AA on Facebook, follow AA on Twitter, and download the SB Nation iPhone app or the SB Nation Android app to take all your favorite Gators content — and the rest of SB Nation — with you on the go.
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Nicole Auerbach on Twitter, on Andy’s write-up:
https://twitter.com/#!/nicoleauerbach/status/163987693066395648
https://twitter.com/#!/nicoleauerbach/status/163988023598526464
https://twitter.com/#!/nicoleauerbach/status/163990458140327938
Which, as you can see in the reply thing, makes sense. I get it.
Editor at Alligator Army.
Yeah, I just don't see Alabama as a lock.
They’d lost 4 in a row going into the game against Arkansas, and looking at the teams they’ve played, their best wins are Purdue and Maryland. Their resume doesn’t scream sure tournament team to me. Their RPI of 36 is solid at the moment, but they will drop like a stone if they maintain their current level of play in conference.
My anti-drug is football, because sometimes it is a better hallucinogen than anything you can get at Burning Man. - Spencer Hall 9/28/11
by car.full.of.midgets on Jan 30, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Yup.
If her reasoning is that she’s being conservative with her locks, why would she include Alabama and Vanderbilt? Kentucky’s the only lock.
Well, she did back it up by saying (in my comment links) that unless the Gators lose like, every single game left on the schedule, they’ll be in the NCAA’s.
I get where she is coming from, like she said, terminology and what not, so yeah, I’m good with it all.
Editor at Alligator Army.
I demand consistency in my speculation, dammit!
I pay good money to rea… oh wait, yeah, I don’t. Nevermind.
My anti-drug is football, because sometimes it is a better hallucinogen than anything you can get at Burning Man. - Spencer Hall 9/28/11
by car.full.of.midgets on Jan 30, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
As I said above
Her reasoning make zero sense because she has Bama and Vandy as “in”
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
why are we even giving this report discussion and hits?
It obviously has no credibility.
In all kinds of weather...
Florida's pretty damn locked
it would take a really nasty February to keep the Gators out of the tournament. Hell, Florida’s projected between a 3-5 seed right now (I’m leaning towards 3 if the season ended today), with a potential to get up to a 2 seed again, if the Gators play really well down the stretch.
Weoejuwejhdjwe!
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by Chekhov's Spread Gun Option on Jan 30, 2012 11:21 AM EST reply actions
Theoretically, if Florida sweeps the rest of its games...
…aren’t the Gators a No. 1?
by Andy Hutchins on Jan 30, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
If they win all remaining games (and the SEC tournament) … yes. Because that’s like beating Kentucky three times.
Editor at Alligator Army.
I would day they can even lose 2 more and still get a #1 if they beat UK a couple times.
But as I stated earlier, I think the Gators’ seed this season matters very little. 3, 4, 5, 6, whatever – we can play with any team in the country (good or bad).
In all kinds of weather...
That’ll give us what, six losses? Yeah, probably. But I agree in that we can play with practically everyone. We’ve hung with the big boys so far this year, just need to finish.
Editor at Alligator Army.
Without a doubt, but that's not going to happen
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
Yeah, Florida could be a 4 loss 1 seed
I don’t think this team can stick with 4 losses though. Too heavily reliant on outside shooting. A bad game and the Gators drop to a Tennessee/Rutgers type team. It would be weird for this team to go through March without a bad game.
Weoejuwejhdjwe!
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by Chekhov's Spread Gun Option on Jan 30, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
This is exactly why I always take "national" sportwriters info with a grain of salt.
Auerbach is trying to paint the big picture on teams I’d wager many of which she’s never even seen play. Putting Bama and Vandy above UF is a swing and a miss any way she tries to spin it. There are too many teams and too much info out there for one person to accurately digest it all. I’ll stick to SB Nation pages for my info and leave USA Today’s analysis to the chatterboxes who want something to prattle on about while waiting for their connecting flight.
Which is of course the beauty of SB Nation and the blogs associated with it. Every once in a while, a national sportswriter will write something on a sport and nail it. But for things like Peter King’s MMQB, the best part (at least to me) is his general thoughts on various subjects. Those are the kinds of things I look for.
Editor at Alligator Army.
That's a bunch of shit.
Tennessee is a way better team than their ranking says. And if they beat Kentucky in their next game (god willing) then that loss is not bad at all. To even think that Florida is a bubble team is close to blasphemy. Nothing we’ve done this year has showed that we are anything close to a bubble team.
by gatorempire127 on Jan 30, 2012 1:31 PM EST via mobile reply actions
She's not the only one
Jerry Palm at CBS has had us at a 9 seed last week, a 10 seed at one point, and never better than a 7. I bring it up to him how his seeding is grossly different from everyone else, and all he says is “Don’t know or care what everyone else did. Would like to see Florida beat someone else. FSU only win. #roadkill”
This was before beating two top 50 RPI teams last week so we’ll see if he gets his shit together, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he only has us at MOST a 7 seed on Wednesday.
These people need to start actually WATCHING basketball.
Palm is an idiot
Lunardi has us at a 4. He is the most accurate of them all
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
There’s a reason I only listen to him and I decided to take his Fundamentals of Bracketology class
by RowdyTownMayor on Jan 31, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
after we beat Kentucky....
…everyone will start talking 2 seed. Of course, that’s when we’ll lose back-to-back to Tennessee and Alabama, but isn’t that the Gator Hoops MO?!?!!
I think we’ll be fine with whatever seed we draw. It’s not like we’re screwed if we have to face a 2 or 3 seed earlier than anticipated. And with this team, we’re not a lot more likely to beat a #12 seed than we are a #3 seed!
In all kinds of weather...
I don't remember the exact cut-off point
but I believe a 4-seed or better has a significantly better chance at winning the tournament. The higher probability upset games start at 5-12, so that cut-off makes sense.
Weoejuwejhdjwe!
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by Chekhov's Spread Gun Option on Jan 31, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
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