FanPost

New Win Shares?

http://www.alligatorarmy.com/2012/7/25/3181371/2012-florida-gators-football-win-shares

Time for a review
Old (I will list mine and then FLAGators)

  • BGSU 1.00 / 1.00
  • Texas A&M 0.70 / 0.55
  • Tennessee 0.65 / 0.70
  • Kentucky 1.00 / 0.85
  • LSU 0.30 / 0.30
  • Vanderbilt 0.85 / 0.95
  • South Carolina 0.45 / 0.30
  • Georgia 0.50 / 0.50
  • Missouri 0.65 / 0.50
  • UL Lafayette 1.00 / 1.00
  • Jacksonville St 1.00 / 1.00
  • FSU 0.40 / 0.45

Total - 8.50 / 8.10

Old Win Share said 8 to 9 wins. So far UF hasn't won any games I didn't think they would. But they have also impressed me enough to merit a change. But before I get to the change this is the new win shares with the 3 wins brought in.

  • BGSU - 1.00
  • A&M - 1.00,
  • Tenn - 1.00,
  • UK - 1.00 / 0.85
  • LSU - 0.30 / 0.30
  • Vandy - 0.85 / 0.95
  • So Car - 0.45 / 0.30
  • UGA - 0.50 / 0.50
  • Mizzu - 0.65 / 0.50
  • ULL - 1.00 / 1.00
  • JSU - 1.00 / 1.00
  • FSU - 0.40 / 0.45

Total is 9.15 / 8.85

After the offensive performance, halftime adjustments, and especially the offensive play calling (Pease makes Weis's tenure all about extra cheese-cheeseburgers so far) coupled with Kentucky's ability to lose at home to the Hilltoppers and their red blob of a mascot that game moves to certified lock (this doesn't change for me but for FLAGators it makes a 0.85 a 1) Result - Plus 0.15

The LSU game would seem to merit a bump, but more so because of the almost 3 weeks to prep for the Bayou Tigers, and with a streaking team I think this gives us all of the advantage. but I won't go over 0.40 on this one because I don't think it's merited just yet. 9 ihope to be pleasantly surprised when we win). For FLA I will just do a 0.05 bump. Result - Plus 0.10 to 0.05

Vanderbilt pretty much stays the same most likely for FLA, but for goes up by 0.05 to a 0.90 Result - Plus 0.05

South Carolina, now this one is tricky. How good is Conor Shaw's backup? Is Shaw truly done for the year? were they really going to throw the ball much anyways with Lattimore in the backfield?I think this game is a potential trap game for UF if South Carolina loses some games heading in. I decided to up the bet by making it a pick em. I assume FLA would probably raise this to a .40? Result - Plus 0.05 to 0.10

Georgia. Oh UGA and you're old man football ... you seem to be pretty effective with it ... but then again you haven't really played anyone other than Mizzu and it seems to take you awhile to get going. What does Florida do? Let offenses play more freely in the FIRST HALF and then shut them down in the 2nd ... seems to be the perfect solution to killing a team like UGA. But it's Georgia and the Dawgs are always a team I never take light. Result - No Change

Missouri my friend, Until Mr. Franklin decides to play again, you have no hope, but I he will by this game unless he gets hurt again. But since UF managed to survive a much faster and better scrambling QB at A&M, I don't believe you can win this game in the air, and your offense has looked anemic at times. Result - Plus 0.05

ULL & JSU - meh, the same

FSU, girls never look better than at a girls school, wearing girl colors . They try to man it up by having guys like E.J. and Jimbo only to fail because those are really pet names you use for little kids. I truly don't know what FSU is this year, they could be really good, could be the same as last season. All I know is I hope Clemson gives them a rude awakening and we claim Ron Zook Field ours again. Result - Plus 0.05

Adjusted Win Shares

  • BGSU - 1.00
  • A&M - 1.00
  • Tenn - 1.00
  • UK - 1.00
  • LSU - 0.40 / 0.35
  • Vandy - 0.90 / 0.95
  • So Car - 0.50 / 0.40
  • UGA - 0.50 / 0.50
  • Mizzu - 0.70 / 0.55
  • ULL - 1.00 / 1.00
  • JSU - 1.00 / 1.00
  • FSU - 0.45 / 0.50

Total is 9.45 / 9.10

The Florida Gators should win around 9 games on the season with ten being very possible.

Please be kind and use good grammar.

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