Still Three Games Left
Gators defeat South Carolina 56-6.
Saturday's game had the sense of a coronation. Florida was not just winning the game, but proving they are the best team in America. The defense played well enough, again, and special teams created chances for UF (as did a 25-yard lateral). On a wet track, Florida ran all over South Carolina with 346 yards on the ground. When a team runs like that, no matter if it is a power or spread system (although Urban Meyer will argue that this is a power system), they will not lose. With Harvin, Rainey, Demps and Moody (in a special guest appearance in the second half) Florida cannot be stopped on the ground. They hit opponents with too many weapons.
But there are three games left and a lot can happen between now and then. There could be injuries, suspensions, or massive riots at the student union over a girl. Who knows what the next three weeks hold for the Florida Gators? If there is one negative to take away is that Tebow would miss Aaron Hernandez and Riley Cooper when they were open (Cooper spent half the game with his arms out, wondering where the ball was). He also wasn't leading guys like he should. But then he throws two gems to Thompson and Hernandez and you realize the kid has a cannon with the touch to drop one in.
But three weeks is an eternity. Florida will beat the Citadel next week, then get The School Out West. If Florida wins those two games, the SEC Championship is a National Semifinal with the winner going to the BCS title. But the same fire they have shown the last few weeks must continue. They cannot let up for one second.
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Kentucky: Question and Answer Time
We exchanged questions with A Sea of Blue, previewing Saturday's game against Kentucky. My questions and their answers follow. For the oppo, visit A Sea of Blue.
- With the Dicky Lyons and Derrick Locke injuries, where does the offense for the Cats come from?
Kentucky was really unlucky to lose Lyons for the season (unlucky for Dicky, too). The only player that we have right now who has shown the ability to get open and do damage is true freshman Randall Cobb, the man who was most responsible from snatching victory from the crushing jaws of defeat last week. Cobb is exciting. He can catch the football. He returns punts. He is a dual-threat quarterback. He is a leader at a tender age. He is Kentucky's answer to Tim Tebow for the Gators two years ago when Tebow was a freshman.
When it comes to Locke, we are very fortunate to have four good tailback options. Locke was the best of the bunch, but just barely. Alfonso Smith is almost as fast as Locke, Tony Dixon is an experienced and skilled tailback, and Moncell Allen is short in stature, but broad in the beam and likes to leave footprints on linebacker's chests. The coaching staff especially liked what Moncell Allen did last week. Because UK has such depth at the spot, Locke was a loss that didn't hurt nearly as bad as Lyons, although losing any player with Locke's abilitys always hurts, particularly in the return game.
- Jeopardy! style, "This is the man who will give Tim Tebow problems."
Who is Micah Johnson?
Johnson is our bone-crushing middle linebacker, one of the highest-ranked recruits Kentucky has ever landed and a sure All-SEC pick this year. He isn't 100%, but even at 90% he is a fearsome, awe-inspiring presence on the field at a chiseled 6'2"/250# of man-eating intensity. Any offensive player with a brain should fear him.
- As you mention in your questions, UK is first in SEC scoring defense. How much of this is legit and how much of it is the quality of teams UK faced to start the season? (To be fair, UF's sched isn't world beaters either.)
Kentucky has a legit defense, but if we substituted SEC games for all the easier games in the schedule, UK's defense would probably not be leading the league in scoring defense. I figure UK would be in the top three or four, though.
Right now, our defense is pretty banged up, and four or five starters are either unable to go or are operating at diminished capacity, including our best defensive tackle, Myron Pryor, who has the dreaded high ankle sprain. As you well know, year in and year out Kentucky's greatest weakness, like all teams of UK's caliber, is depth. We are deeper at defense than we have ever been this year, but when enough injuries start to pile up, it takes a toll.
So if you want to assign a percentage, you could say that between 15 and 25% of UK's defensive ranking is due to playing a fairly weak schedule early in the year. On the other hand, our defense is at least 15-20% less effective right now due to injury than it would be otherwise. Obviously, that doesn't bode well for playing the #1 SEC offense in the Gators after a bye week, but that is how the schedule goes.
- UK is first in kick off returns and the Gators return game sucks (9th, but it plays like they are 13th). Is this the way UK can close the gap? And if so you will be the guy making Gator fans clutch their hearts? (Note: The Gators coverage sucks but I make it seem as if the return game sucks. Poorly worded question.)
It's an interesting dichotemy -- Kentucky's kickoff coverage is better on the road than at home, and the Gators are about the same in both places. But on the road, Kentucky is 11th in kick returns. Given that, I don't think the return game is going to help UK too much, although you never know. Up until the last two games, UK had been wonderful on special teams all year, but much less so since we left Tuscaloosa.
Derrick Locke's loss will be felt most on kick returns, since he was our best at that spot, having taken one to the house this year. Locke was having a bit of trouble hanging on to the ball lately, though, which hurt him returning the ball. We'll just have to see if Smith, Dixon, or Ford can do better, or even as well. If there is any player the Gators should fear in the kicking game, it is Alfonso Smith. If he gets a step, you won't seen anything but his backside. But then again, I'm not 100% sure he will be returning kicks.
- Four turnovers vs. Arky, and two each vs. South Carolina and Bama...problem of focus or youth?
Both. Let's take the most recent game as representative. Against Arkansas, UK had two fumbles and two interceptions. One interception was the result of a good defensive play -- Hartline was hit just as he was coming down on his throwing motion, which caused the ball to sail into the arms of a defender. One interception was the result of poor execution on a play made when we needed a score badly. Hartline underthrew a ball into single coverage, and the young receiver and DB had a "jump ball." The receiver lost.
Both fumbles were the result of a lack of focus. Locke fumbled a short pass trying to turn and run with it before securing the football. The other turnover was caused by DeMoreo Ford, a punt returner, not getting away from the football when he let it hit. He just did the wrong thing and the football touched him. It was a lazy play that cost us a score, and Brooks didn't send him out to return punts after that -- he sent Randall Cobb, whom Brooks knows he can trust not to do something lazy or silly.
- Seven wins guarantee a bowl game for Kentucky; where do those two more wins come from?
Good question, and the answer is that we have a somewhat favorable schedule remaining after the Florida game. UK has two very winnable games left on our schedule, and two upset possibilities. Mississippi State and Vanderbilit have to be considered winnable games -- the Bulldogs are struggling and we get Vandy at home. Georgia has to come to Kentucky, and I see that as an upset possibility -- they will be coming into commonwealth after having faced LSU in Death Valley and you guys in the Cocktail Party. That's a meat-grinder, and those games figure to deplete the Dawgs whether they win or lose. Since their offense has been somewhat challenged in the red zone this year, I figure we have as good a shot against them as we ever will. UK has pulled off a major upset in each of the last two years, and I figure that's our best bet this year.
Then, there is Tennessee down in Knoxville after a week off. Tough to figure that game. UT has been playing poorly this year, but could turn in around this weekend against 'Bama in the Third Saturday in October. But we will be coming off a bye week and UT off what promises to be a bloody rivalry game with Vanderbilt. So again, there is a chance for us to pick up yet another win.
I place our chances at coming away 7-5 or better at about 65-70% right now, assuming no more major injuries. - Your prediction; and BONUS! Does Patrick Patterson become the focus of the Cats' offense or is he not ready? And since your jerseys are Secretariat inspired (well played, Kentucky), will Patterson go by "Big Red"?
Prediction: The Gator streak can't go on forever. I'm picking UK in an upset, 31-30 (Does that score sound familiar? :-)).
BONUS: Patrick Patterson will unquestionably be the focus of the UK offense in basketball this year, ready or not. And he will not go by "Big Red" -- Just doesn't work for him, I think. Plus, that's Western Kentucky's mascot name -- somehow, I don't think Pat would find that particularly amusing. :-) But Patterson will be our horse, make no mistake.
Thanks so much to our friends at A Sea of Blue who are gentlemen and scholars.
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Gators Take Advantage of Seismic Shift In SEC
Florida Gators defeat LSU Tigers 51-21
So, what do we think now? Which sample is the outlier? The Ole Miss loss? The destruction of LSU, who will surely recover and beat the hell out of Alabama because that is how the SEC works this season? (Note to Bama fans: Face it, no one makes it out of the conference alive. You don't want your loss to Auburn again, do you?) How is it possible that the Gators, following two games where they looked lifeless (even if they were 1-1), roll 50 on LSU with the vigor of a frat guy on free beer night at Grog?
The question is now, are we all even? UGA, Florida, LSU all have one loss and Vandy is hoping now for the Outback Bowl (CROOOOOMED teams do not win division titles). Auburn has ended their season as has Tennessee. With Alabama keeping the dream alive, we are back to the four heavyweights throwing haymakers and everyone else playing Buster Douglas.
The new AP poll has Florida at five now, the biggest poll jump since Obama post-McCain campaign suspension. Are they five? They don't look like it. They look like one or two. Just as the emotions and attitudes of the fan base will rise and fall this season, so will apparently the Gators' output. The Gators held the Tigers to 4-13 on third down, a huge mark especially in the first half. The 19 total first downs for LSU is an outlier; LSU had three scoring drives and three more ended by a turnover or punt. That was a bend-don't break defense in the model of 2006, complete with The Major Wright doing his Reggie F. Nelson impression. The three scores to start the game for UF added to the body blows the defense registered, but more impressively offensively was the way the Gators stepped on LSU's throat with two demoralizing TD drives in the third.
Percy Harvin was in Heisman form, as was Tim Tebow. But, watching Jeff Demps run is unbelievable. Chris Rainey is fast too (although who knows after his apparent shoulder injury). But Demps is world class sprinter speed. While LSU has those guys too, Demps can change direction and more importantly has field vision. You cannot teach speed and you cannot teach how to find holes. But if Brandon James is already "Cold Blooded Brandon James" what will be Demps' nickname? Use the bye week to figure that one out.
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Classic Moments In Championship Mode: LSU @ Florida, 2006
It's hard to remember now, but The Legend of Tim Tebow began with a play-action pass against LSU in 2006.
One of my worst losses as a student was the 2002 LSU-UF game when I realized Ron Zook did not have the mental capacity to coach in the SEC and the Gators lost 36-7. But since that game, the series has been extremely close, defined not by the offensive stars on each side, but whose defense steps up. Last season, if the Gators defense makes one stand, UF doesn't blow a 10 point 4th quarter lead and lose 28-24. In 2006, Tebow's jump pass made youtube, but it was the Gator defense with back-breaking takeaways, including one inside the UF 3-yard line. In '05 and '04, the game turned when LSU was able to keep the Gators scoreless late in the game.
We all know that the SEC is a league of offensive innovation (Fun 'n Gun, Spread, Wild Hog/Rebel, the Feature Back, Track team as wideouts), but it is the defense that wins games. So what does this all mean for you?
Wait, what does this mean for me? Uh?
Yes, you see, Championship Mode is very important in this game. By the time this game happens Saturday night, we will know if Tennessee pulled off the unthinkable and defeated Georgia. While that won't change anything (unless Vandy loses at Miss. State), it gives UF a psychological advantage. The Ole Miss loss is still around this team's neck. If the fans show up half-assed and more interested in hooking up or getting wasted, they will not be in Championship Mode nor will the team be in Championship Mode. I feel very strongly about this. Defense in college football is carried by the fans. You think they wave their arms to keep their pits cool? No jackass. They want you involved in the game. And stand up, you go to Florida, not Miami. I don't care if it's a replay review.
Maybe when you go to Bucs or Dolphins games (no one goes to Jags games), you can text your girl or worry about thinks like, "Brah, did that dude 8 rows away look at me funny? Because I will totally punch him!" You go to Florida. You are there to drive the team to victory. I do not care how cute she looks in that sundress. (Besides, a victory will make it a lot easier to get that girl.) And a victory only arrives if you embrace Championship Mode. I trust that you will make the right decision and lead the Gators back on the right track to a SEC Championship.
(By the way, this is a great Championship Mode weekend; LSU vs. UF and Red Sox vs. Rays. Enjoy yourselves.)
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Tim Tebow and the NFL
Tuesday's entry about Tebow considering the NFL isn't really groundbreaking, but it is our first sense as to what he thinks. For an athlete that is so beloved and studied by media and opponents, we really don't know where he is on playing all four years. We always assume he will play his senior season, using his idol Danny Wuerffel as the guide. Plus, Tebow only has won titles as a backup, even if it was in a featured role. But that season was more about Chris Leak fulfilling a promise made by Ron Zook that the QB would win a title. Tebow was no more of a contributor than Percy Harvin or Jarvis Moss.Percy might leave next season too, which likely factors into Tebow's decision. You don't think Tebow is smart enough to look around and wonder if the window to success is closing on this particular class of players?
I don't think Tebow is pressured by his parents or family. If anything, there is more pressure to stay because he lives in comfort and doesn't have a sick mother or a girlfriend with a baby to care for. There is no need to leave. He might also think he cannot take the punishment that the Meyer/Mullen system has put him under. The kid is built like a tank, but you can only take so much mortar fire before you start struggling. In the NFL, he won't be plunging ahead from 5 yards behind the line, expected to get that 4th and 2. Who knows? Maybe he fears injury like Cornelius Ingram?
Of course, if he left and the Bucs picked him, I'd forgive him immediately.
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Timmy Tebow In 2009: Maybe?
From this week's Sporting News on newsstands Thursday;
On whether he can say for certain he’ll be back at Florida in 2009: “I can’t say for sure, no.”
On whether he’s leaning one way or another: “Obviously, my lean would be coming back. But if the season ends up going good and I’m blessed to have an opportunity to go play in the NFL pretty early, I think that’s something, just trying to be prudent and wise about it, it’s something you have to look at. (Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks) Coach (Dan) Mullen and Coach (Urban) Meyer would tell me the exact same thing. You need to be wise and look at it … because that’s the opportunity of a lifetime. It’s not only a blessing financially, but it would be a blessing for so many other people because with the money you can make in something like that, you can do so many great things for your communities, for helping people, for my family, for everything. So I think that would be maybe even selfish to say I wouldn’t look at it because of all the things that money could do.”
I'll have more on this later. Hopefully this doesn't upset your prep for Championship Mode on Saturday.
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Davey O'Brien Award - Vote for Timmy Tebow!
It's that time of year again! Fan voting is open for the Davey O'Brien Award. Florida's Timmy Tebow was last year's recipient and I know all Gator fans would like to see the trophy stay with our own golden child. So go to The Davey O'Brien Award website and vote every day for Timmy Tebow!
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Game Five: Florida @ Arkansas
Following Saturday's loss, my friend Natalie and I broke down Tim Tebow;
mlmintampa: "I thought we'd get it," Tebow said. "I thought I'd will myself to the first down. We just didn't do it."
nataliza: wow
mlmintampa: it's Year 3 of Timmy Tebow, people are figuring him out
nataliza: that he runs on faith? well that and you can't run up the middle
mlmintampa: no, on sheer determination, but you make a good point, seriously, like profound
nataliza: give me credit on alligator army
And it is with that we swing our attention to today's game at Arkansas and the psyche of a team bruised by not meeting expectations. Great teams do not underestimate opponents. Good teams do and think that sheer will, a talent advantage or praying harder will be the ultimate edge. With Urban Meyer, Dan Mullen and Tim Tebow, you have all of those things.
Like Billy Donovan last season, there have been points this season where Urban has looked frustrated because the Gators were not crushing like they should be. It was evidenced against Ole Miss when was seen 10 yards on the field, waving his arms to get his team excited and the muted student section who saw the writing on the wall. College students are keenly aware of a peer not being able to meet a particular challenge, despite their talent, because they know the same feeling. Saturday's game was a lesson for Urban and it made him realize that this is still a young team who sometimes cannot rise to the occasion.
Florida clearly has one of the most talented offenses in the country. How many schools have two legit Heisman guys (Tebow, Harvin), the US high school 100-m dash record holder (Jeff Demps), and a USC transfer (Emmanuel Moody) which is the equivalent of a blockbuster NFL free agency signing. The problem is for Mullen is that drawing lines on paper, creating plays that work fantastically against 180 pound d-ends on the scout team, is not working as it should in game play. Ole Miss realized it didn't take much to throw UF off stride. A few well timed blitzes and Mullen did not know what to do. After all, that two yard sneak from a shotgun formation always works in practice.
For Tim Tebow, this season has been painful. Not because of the Ole Miss loss, but because the same tricks and moves don't work anymore. I don't know if Tebow thinks he would have gotten that last first down because he's just more powerful or has God backing him up. At this point, that doesn't matter. Because Tebow has to start thinking about the game. Quarterbacks are beloved for being unique. But unique quarterbacks don't win. Running around the pocket or assuming your frozen rope will get between the corner's hands or that your tight end runs fast enough to get under that ball does not win games. It didn't last year and it won't this season. He needs to start thinking like Chris Leak or Danny Wuerffel. Both of those guys would take what the defense would give them, then hit the bomb. Tebow wasn't doing that consistently until the fourth quarter last week. And don't get me wrong; this isn't spread vs. pro-style. It's intelligence vs. intensity.
Today's game against Arkansas is the Gators' first step in washing the stench of the crap fest that was the Ole Miss game. If the Gators do not come out with guns blazing and dominate the worst team in the SEC, Colonel Reb will haunt this team all the way to the Capital One Bowl.
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SEC Power Poll Roundtable
Our friends at Garnet and Black Attack have put together the SEC Power Poll Roundtable. You can submit your own answers in the comments.
1. Pretend for a minute that Vanderbilt wasn't 2-0, then answer this question: What has been the most surprising thing in the SEC so far this season?
Georgia, granted against lower quality teams, has scored 101 points this season, tops in the league and 19 ahead of second place UF. I don't care as much about the 38 points, because the defense will Nut Up in SEC play and at Arizona State. But to average 50ppg is pretty significant.
2. Conference action has either just begun for most teams, or will Sept. 20. (The exception is Kentucky, which I believe plays I-AA teams until mid-November.) From what you've seen so far, how will your team fare in your division? If it's not going to win, which team will?
Good Florida will run the table, with a fleet of shifty running backs and very good receivers. Their strength is an improved defense, led by a linebacker corps that can drop in coverage or meet the running back in the hole. Bad Florida has problems on the offensive line, still depends too much on Tebow, and the d-line cannot penetrate leaving the still green DBs open to be burned. If Bad Florida only plays the first quarter or goes away, the Florida-UGA game in Jax is the Eastern Division Championship Game.
3. Which SEC player that few of us are paying attention to is poised to have a breakout season? Try to choose someone not on your team.
Jevan Snead; Ole Miss QB. Stafford could be picked here too, but Ole Miss is under the radar and frisky. Snead played very well in the loss at Wake Forest and has 6 TDs, tied with Knowshon Moreno for the overall SEC lead. The Ole Miss @ Florida game in a few weeks could be his coming out party if he knocks around the Gators' secondary.
4. Both Arkansas and LSU have had games delayed because of hurricanes. If you could choose a game on your team's current schedule to get postponed because of inclement weather, which game would you choose and why?
Florida-Georgia because there should always be a bye week before that game. Florida has bye weeks this week and Oct. 18, a week before Kentucky and two before Georgia. But Georgia gets LSU before that game, so they might be a little wounded too.
5. So, the Large Haldron Collider hasn't destroyed the Earth -- so far, anyway. But had the world ended Wednesday morning, which SEC game would you have most regretted missing? Assuming, of course, you had been around to regret it. (Head...hurts...)
Florida-Georgia not necessarily because I'm a Gator fan, but because for the first time in a long time (of course I defer to the gentlemen at Dawg Sports if my history is off) this will be a Division Championship game. Both teams are at this point, the class of the league. When I was in school (02-06), one team was in much better shape than the other. In the Spurrier Era, UF was always on top. To use a political phrase (from the 1820's), we are in the Era of Bad Feelings.
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Breakfast With Alligator Army: Hawaii
Florida Gators defeat Hawaii Warriors 56-10.
- Let's chalk up the scoreless first quarter to the 12:30 start time and the usual first game jitters. If this team thinks they can start slow like they did all last season, they can kiss the SEC Championship goodbye.
- I was very glad the little I was able to get to a TV to watch the second half and see Jeff Demps destroy people with his 62-yard TD run. Not to mention, Chris Rainey's 33-yard score and 'Cold Blooded' Brandon James' punt return for a score. These three just might be able to keep UF afloat while Percy Harvin is out and we start saving Tebow. The Sentinel notes that the Demps-Rainey attack, plus Tebow not having to do much work, is a good sign.
- By the way, UF has a Murderers' Row. Look at these guys by numbers; 1-Harvin, 2-Demps, 3-Rainey. How cool is that?
- Sports Illustrated writer William Nack described Secretariat's run in the Belmont Stakes as being, "Too damn fast." That is my favorite description for the Gators' offense and would have made a much better headline for the Honolulu Star-Bulletin.
- Tebow's lack of action is mentioned by the St. Pete Times' John Romano and the Sun's Pat Dooley as a good thing. II mentioned this on the occasion of Tebow's 21st birthday that we will see a different player. Florida's offense treats the dual threat QB as a standard part of the offense, but if they want Tebow at 100% for the whole season, it needs to be a luxury only used when necessary.
- Finally, I have to mention Hurricane Gustav because I have an odd interest in tropical weather and New Orleans. When I interviewed Danny Wuerffel in May about Louisiana-based Desire Street Ministries, I asked if he ever worried that people have forgotten about New Orleans. He admitted that maybe the support to rebuild homes and business may have dropped. But it was more about rebuilding lives, which is happening everyday as people moved to New Orleans to restore the entire region. Unfortnately, it appears that rebuilding will have to happen again. I know my thoughts this week were set for destroying Miami on Saturday night, but I'll have them set to New Orleans now. Just keep them in your thoughts and prayers this week as well. Johnny Cash asks the same.
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