clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Third round Statistical Model from the Score Card

By David Bloom

The scorecard formula has the following preditions for this round of the tourney. Of course, this model shows nothing as far as the UCLA team coming back from the 17 point lead, or that Duke with LSU players in foul trouble would not pick up their effort. Anyway, here are the numbers.

Predictions for Round 3 (Sweet Sixteen) Tournament Games for 2006

The percentages shown at the far right for each game represents the probability that the higher seed will win the game. 
Atlanta:              
1 Duke 7.0148   4 Lousiana St. 6.8150   57.92%
2 Texas 6.2881   6 West Virginia 6.1394   55.91%
Oakland:              
1 Memphis 6.3030   13 Bradley 5.7073   72.43%
2 UCLA 6.4620   3 Gonzaga 6.1387   62.68%
Washington, DC:              
1 Connecticut 6.5904   5 Washington 5.5056   86.10%
7 Wichita St. 6.2577   11 George Mason 5.8359   66.34%
Minneapolis:              
1 Villanova 6.9204   4 Boston College 5.7722   87.46%
3 Florida 5.8434   7 Georgetown 5.8097   51.34%

They got three out of four from last night correct for a 75% accuracy. This model says the Gators get by Georgetown tonight, but just barely.