clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Bracketology

ESPN's Joe Lunardi usually gets these things right. That's why his prediction of Florida as an 11 seed in the East should raise some eyebrows. I don't necessarily disagree with the prediction, but after watching two very good performances to start SEC play, it's interesting to be reminded how much is still left to do.

The bad news for the Gators is that their RPI sucks. The weak non-conference schedule didn't help and a poor SEC won't make that number any higher. That is generally dangerous because when the committee looks at a weak RPI from a major conference and compares it to a high RPI from a mid-major, that mid-major usually wins out (see: George Mason, 2006). A few more losses, which are to be expected, and we might be looking at NIT purgatory.

The good news is that the NCAA committee also looks at history. Florida's history may begin with Billy Donovan, but the Gators have four appearances in the Final Four since 1994. That's the same amount as sarcasm alert! America's Team, the Duke Blue Devils. Back-to-back National Championships help our cause, but in the committee room, it only takes a few guys to sell the Gators short to send them to the NIT. It will be the long term success in the Donovan Era that will help.