:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/15875587/20130414_ter_sv7_254.0.jpg)
Another summer (almost) gone, another chance for everyone here at Alligator Army to correctly predict the Florida Gators' 2013 record by way of win shares. If you're new to the site we've got you covered.
As we said last year, win shares are nothing new to college football. Well, not new as in just this past couple of years, but they've been rapidly getting more popular over the last half decade or so.
Most of us last year had the Gators in the 8-9 win range and that was very fair. Nobody expected the Gators to go on the tear that they did. But as the season wore on we began to wonder if they could keep it up.
Then Georgia happened.
Sigh.
Is there a Georgia on the schedule this year? Who knows. But win shares are one way of showing what games people think are probable losses (as well as wins) and they can go a long way in showing which games can be another upset, like Georgia in 2012.
On the surface, Gators' schedule in 2013 is just like years past. Difficult home games followed by improbable road games and a neutral site game that is one of the top tier rivalry games in all of college football.
What do the win shares say about 2013? From my perspective, anyway:
| Opponent | Win Share |
|---|---|
| Toledo | 0.95 |
| Miami | 0.75 |
| Tennessee | 0.80 |
| Kentucky | 0.95 |
| Arkansas | 0.65 |
| LSU | 0.55 |
| Missouri | 0.85 |
| Georgia | 0.50 |
| Vanderbilt | 0.80 |
| South Carolina | 0.45 |
| Georgia Southern | 1.00 |
| Florida State | 0.55 |
| Total | 8.80 |
As you can see, that sets my total at 8.8. That's not as high as I originally thought it was going to be, but that puts me down for around 9 wins, with 8 being a possibility. I guess I've got more questions about the team than I thought. But hey, it's not an exact science, right?
It also means that I've got the Gators favored in every single game except for South Carolina, which seems about right. Yes, I know that Georgia, LSU and Florida State are on the schedule as well, but I've got the Gators either favored very slightly against them (LSU and Florida State) or even (Georgia).
On another note, it also shows that I think the only guaranteed win is against FBS newcomer Georgia Southern, with Kentucky, Missouri, Toledo and Tennessee not all that far behind.
The season should be a fun one, as I'm not as high on the Gators as I thought I would be. Maybe they'll find that 10th win and make me look like an idiot. I'd be okay with that. (Again.)
What do yours say? Feel free to give it a shot in the comments below.