Look: Florida's a major, major underdog for this game at LSU (2 p.m., CBS, or so said GatorZone) on this Saturday.
The Tigers beat Florida more comprehensively than any other squad this season, thumping them by 18 points in the O'Connell Center back in late January. That game was a five-point affair early in the second half, and a 14-2 LSU run put the Gators away.
But that was a) in Gainesville and b) with the services of Dorian Finney-Smith and Michael Frazier II available to the Gators. Both players had forgettable games — Finney-Smith went 4-for-13 from the field and had five turnovers; Frazier had just eight points in 33 minutes — but their play helped the Gators avoid letting a blowout turn into a beatdown for the record books.
Without them, in Baton Rouge? It might get ugly, even though Florida's defense has become the 10th-stingiest in the country on a per-possession basis. Sure, LSU committed 16 turnovers in that January meeting and still won by 18 — but Florida's gotten better at defending in the halfcourt since then, and ... okay, I can't.
Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey are going to eat the Gators alive inside, Keith Hornsby will splash some threes, and Florida's going to lose this game because it just doesn't have the firepower to keep up, not without Finney-Smith and Frazier.
If I'm wrong, I'll be happy to be wrong.
I'm pretty sure I'm not.