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Florida’s win shares take big hit after LSU rescheduling

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Replacing two home games with an SEC road game lowers expectations for win totals. Go figure!

NCAA Football: Florida at Vanderbilt Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

The 2016 win shares for Florida that I set out at the beginning of the season suggested an eight-win bar that might be difficult to clear.

Now, after Hurricane Matthew reshaped Florida’s schedule — out go the home game against LSU, and the breather against Presbyterian; in comes a November road trip to Death Valley — it would be an achievement for the Gators to get to eight wins.

Opponent Win Share
Massachusetts 1.00
Kentucky 1.00
North Texas 1.00
at Tennessee 0.00
at Vanderbilt 1.00
Missouri 0.80
vs. Georgia 0.60
at Arkansas 0.35
South Carolina 0.85
at LSU 0.45
at Florida State 0.35
Total 7.40

My thinking:

  • The loss of Presbyterian costs nearly a full win (I gave Florida a 95 percent chance to win that game) on its own, but also costs about a tenth of a win because of the diminished chance of beating LSU at Death Valley.
  • Every other team stays the same because of too many uncertainties. How will Florida look with Luke Del Rio back? Is Georgia the team that took Tennessee to the wire, or the one that has struggled for much of the year apart from that game? Is Florida State’s defense the one we saw shut down Miami, or the one that had been aerated for the first month of the season? I’m not willing to make major changes this week.
  • Florida’s win over Vanderbilt helps set the bar a bit above seven wins — and the Gators should do no worse than end up bowl eligible, given that Missouri and South Carolina both look like inferior teams and have to travel to Gainesville. But winning none of Florida’s “big five” games — Tennessee, Georgia, Arkansas, LSU, and FSU — would now make the Gators a six-win team. And, fairly or not, that would be used against them.

As always, I want to know what your win shares are, too. Please feel free to leave your predictions in the comments of this post.