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Florida’s win shares will change significantly after Georgia

The Gators could set themselves up for an unquestioned successful season on Saturday.

NCAA Football: Missouri at Florida Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

There’s only very minimal movement for Florida’s 2016 win shares this week. That’s to be expected after a bye that multiple other Florida foes shared, though.

What was true last week remains true now, too: Defeating Georgia would add close to half a win, between the full win share that would come from the game and some marginal gains elsewhere. And it would put Florida on track for eight wins, at minimum.

Opponent Win Share
Massachusetts 1.00
Kentucky 1.00
North Texas 1.00
at Tennessee 0.00
at Vanderbilt 1.00
Missouri 1.00
vs. Georgia 0.65
at Arkansas 0.35
South Carolina 0.90
at LSU 0.45
at Florida State 0.35
Total 7.75

My thinking:

  • I added 0.05 back to the Georgia share because of the seeming certainty that Jarrad Davis will play in some capacity for the Gators today. Florida would be a favorite even without him, sure, but he makes me more confident that this one is going to go to the boys in blue.
  • The LSU number edges lower again after Leonard Fournette’s bravura performance last week. Florida’s swap of playing LSU at home without Fournette and playing another gimme game to playing LSU in Death Valley with Fournette has cost this team close to a win and a half in win shares — and might cost a win on the field, too.
  • Arkansas and Florida State stay the same. But FSU’s is the one of those two win shares more likely to improve: Should Clemson torch the Seminoles in Tallahassee, I’ll have a hard time thinking that FSU playing better against Miami and Wake Forest was much more than a dead-cat bounce.

As always, I want to know what your win shares are, too. Please feel free to leave your predictions in the comments of this post.