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If Florida wants to show progress in 2016, it must top South Carolina

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Win shares show that much.

NCAA Football: Georgia vs Florida Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been more than a month since I had to tweak Florida’s 2016 win shares to reflect a loss. But the Gators’ loss to Arkansas last Saturday requires more than a tweak: Florida was poised to be an eight-win team as of this time last week, but now may be fortunate to finish with seven victories.

Opponent Win Share
Massachusetts 1.00
Kentucky 1.00
North Texas 1.00
at Tennessee 0.00
at Vanderbilt 1.00
Missouri 1.00
vs. Georgia 1.00
at Arkansas 0.00
South Carolina 0.70
at LSU 0.30
at Florida State 0.30
Total 7.30

My thinking:

  • I had Arkansas as a coin-flip, basically. Florida got stomped. How can I not revise other numbers downward?
  • The South Carolina win probability is down because the Gamecocks have been better of late, and because I can’t get with the lopsided game that Las Vegas and S&P+ — which forecasts a 20-point Florida win — see happening. Florida’s more beat up than Vegas seems to understand, and S&P+ can’t see that Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone are out.
  • LSU’s defense showed me plenty against Alabama, but that LSU offense really doesn’t have two dimensions, does it? Then again, does Florida’s offense have one?
  • Florida State got a boost to the likelihood of Deondre Francois playing a full game against Florida when Davis and Anzalone got hurt. He might still get harassed and hounded, but I’m less sure that he’ll be under the sort of siege that might well force him out of the game. (And, to be clear: I’m not rooting for that; I just think that was a likely outcome against the full Florida pass rush.)

As always, I want to know what your win shares are, too. Please feel free to leave your predictions in the comments of this post.