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Florida vs. Kentucky: Updating Gators win share predictions for 2016

The Gators didn’t look great last week. But who did?

NCAA Football: Florida Atlantic at Florida Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

As mentioned last week, I’m going to update my 2016 win shares for Florida every week of this season as teams change so as to better capture my expectations for the Gators. After a mostly desultory win over Massachusetts last week, there’s room for the Gators to lose a bit of ground this week, right?

Unfortunately, there’s not so much ground to lose when Florida’s opponents almost uniformly looked bad, too.

Opponent Win Share
Massachusetts 1.00
Kentucky 0.90
North Texas 1.00
at Tennessee 0.45
at Vanderbilt 0.80
LSU 0.40
Missouri 0.75
vs. Georgia 0.50
at Arkansas 0.40
South Carolina 0.85
Presbyterian 0.95
Florida State 0.25
Total 8.25

Again, notes:

  • Florida’s got a really good chance of going 3-0 heading into its game at Tennessee, with Kentucky looking even worse than the Gators did last weekend in a loss to Southern Mississippi. North Texas lost 34-21 to SMU last week.
  • I left my projection for Tennessee unchanged — Tennessee looked worse than I expected, but so did Florida — but bumped down the chance of beating Georgia after seeing Nick Chubb was pretty close to full health in Georgia’s opener.
  • I left my projection for Arkansas unchanged because I firmly believe Arkansas will be a different team in November than the one that struggled with Louisiana Tech last week.
  • I reduced Florida’s win share for the Florida State game because of how good Deondre Francois looked against Mississippi. He won’t be that good consistently in 2016, but him showing that ceiling makes it crystal clear FSU is going to ride him for the chance of getting similar ones rather than going back to Sean Maguire once he returns from injury.

As always, I want to know what your win shares are, too. Please feel free to leave win shares in the comments of this post.