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Florida vs. North Texas: Gators’ win share predictions for 2016 tick upward

Things look a bit better after a big win.

Miami Ohio v Florida Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Before each Gators game this season — eventually, I will publish this post on a Friday — I’m going to update my 2016 win shares for Florida to accurately capture my expectations for the Gators. While doing very little to impress against UMass didn’t move the meter for me, emphatically blowing out Kentucky was probably good for some movement, right?

Yes. Yes, it was.

Opponent Win Share
Massachusetts 1.00
Kentucky 1.00
North Texas 1.00
at Tennessee 0.50
at Vanderbilt 0.80
LSU 0.45
Missouri 0.80
vs. Georgia 0.50
at Arkansas 0.35
South Carolina 0.85
Presbyterian 0.95
Florida State 0.25
Total 8.45

Again, notes:

  • Florida earns a 0.10 bump for beating Kentucky. This is how this is going to work: Smallish swings upward for wins, bigger ones downward after losses.
  • After leaving my projection for Tennessee unchanged after Week 1, I’m moving that game to a true coin flip this week after being largely unimpressed with how Tennessee began its game against Virginia Tech. The Vols got rolling, sure, but they’ve looked too vulnerable to me to think that game truly favors them. (And no, I didn’t factor in this Saturday’s games — that number might rise next week.)
  • The only number ticking down this week: Arkansas, which held off TCU in a fine game between two teams that should probably be on the fringe of the top 25, just like Florida. Arkansas at home in November is a different predicament than Tennessee at home in September, too, and not just because the Hogs don’t have the same sort of recent history against Florida.

As always, I want to know what your win shares are, too. Please feel free to leave win shares in the comments of this post.