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Florida vs. Tennessee: Vols provide point of inflection for win shares

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Things are trending upward. But trends can reverse quickly.

Missouri v Florida Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

As ever, I’m going to update my 2016 win shares for Florida to accurately capture my expectations for the Gators on a week-by-week basis. Florida doing what it did to North Texas was impressive, but losing Luke Del Rio hurts.

Still, things look slightly better for the Gators this week.

Opponent Win Share
Massachusetts 1.00
Kentucky 1.00
North Texas 1.00
at Tennessee 0.50
at Vanderbilt 0.85
LSU 0.45
Missouri 0.80
vs. Georgia 0.55
at Arkansas 0.35
South Carolina 0.85
Presbyterian 0.95
Florida State 0.35
Total 8.55

Notes!

  • I left Florida at 0.50 at Tennessee because I truly do think this game is close to a coin flip, even though Tennessee struggled with Ohio last weekend. I think the coin comes up Gators, but I still don’t have so much confidence that I’m moving it to more than a 50 percent value.
  • This week is almost certain to be a point of inflection for the Gators. Beat Tennessee, and it’s going to look very possible for Florida to win at least nine games. Lose, and the Gators will project right around eight wins.
  • Vanderbilt and Missouri both got smallish 0.05-point bumps, because Vandy is really bad and because Mizzou couldn’t hold off Georgia’s haphazard offense at home.
  • Likewise, Georgia flips from 0.45 to 0.55 because of the Bulldogs’ struggles at Missouri. (I’m not factoring in what’s already happened on this Saturday — so that number might go way up for next week.)
  • After a truly dismaying showing by its defense, I’m feeling slightly more confident about Florida’s chances at Florida State. But I still have that as the Gators’ toughest game.

As always, I want to know what your win shares are, too. Please feel free to leave win shares in the comments of this post.