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Weekly Win Shares: Florida is inching toward a 10-win 2018

The Gators’ year looks better and better.

NCAA Football: Florida at Vanderbilt Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a minute since we last updated our win shares for the Florida Gators for the rest of the 2018 season. But waiting on it hasn’t hurt the Gators at all.

This week, for the first time, a 10-win season really seems to be within reach — and winning against Georgia on Saturday would make it seem not just within reach but likely.

Florida’s 2018 Win Shares — October 25, 2018

Game Win Share Cumulative Win Shares
Game Win Share Cumulative Win Shares
Charleston Southern 1 1
Kentucky 0 1
Colorado State 1 2
at Tennessee 1 3
at Mississippi State 1 4
LSU 1 5
at Vanderbilt 1 6
vs. Georgia 0.4 6.4
Missouri 0.7 7.1
South Carolina 0.7 7.8
Idaho 1 8.8
at Florida State 0.6 9.4
Total 9.4

Add the remaining 0.6 from the Georgia win share to Florida’s total, and that cumulative projection gets to 10.0 without any other adjustments — which, should Florida knock off the clear best team remaining on its schedule, would obviously happen.

And Florida’s obviously been able to add remaining shares with wins on the field of late, turning what were 0.4 and 0.45 shares against Mississippi State and LSU one day short of a month ago into full wins.

I’ve also bumped up Florida’s chances in most of its November games. Missouri and South Carolina look more likely as wins now both because those teams have flaws Florida can exploit and because I think the Gators are liable to play quite well in their first games in The Swamp in a month, and Idaho is getting a 1.0 now because I cannot fathom an injury — even to Feleipe Franks, still Florida’s most important player by far — making the Gators inferior enough to a bad Vandals squad to lose that game.

The exception, of course, is the Florida State game, which I definitely still have artificially low. I have the same need to see it before believing it that I think most Gators fans have when it comes to beating the Seminoles on a football field. Sorry.

And yes, S&P+ is more bullish than I am on that one.

Florida’s Win Shares vs. S&P+ Win Probability — October 25, 2018

Game Win Share S&P+ Win Probability
Game Win Share S&P+ Win Probability
vs. Georgia 0.4 0.36
Missouri 0.7 0.63
South Carolina 0.7 0.76
Idaho 1 0.93
at Florida State 0.6 0.69

Florida still has a tall task before it in Jacksonville, but would seem likely to be favored in every game after that one — even if, as is possible, it loses to Georgia.

And so this fall has all the makings of a 10-win season.

Those are my Win Shares as of this week. What are yours?