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The Florida Gators had been able to count on wins over Kentucky every year for the last three decades.
Not this year.
And Florida’s loss to the Wildcats last weekend is obviously a significant blow to the season outlook for the Gators — who now, by my sight, look like they will have to stage an upset somewhere along the way just to get to seven wins.
Here are my post-Kentucky win shares projections for the Gators.
2018 Florida Gators Win Shares — Week 3
| Game | Win Share | Cumulative Win Shares | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game | Win Share | Cumulative Win Shares | Delta |
| Charleston Southern | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 0 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Colorado State | 0.8 | 1.8 | -0.1 |
| at Tennessee | 0.6 | 2.4 | 0 |
| at Mississippi State | 0.25 | 2.65 | -0.1 |
| LSU | 0.45 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| at Vanderbilt | 0.65 | 3.75 | -0.05 |
| vs. Georgia | 0.15 | 3.9 | -0.1 |
| Missouri | 0.5 | 4.4 | -0.1 |
| South Carolina | 0.5 | 4.9 | -0.15 |
| Idaho | 0.9 | 5.8 | 0 |
| at Florida State | 0.5 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Total | 6.3 | -1.5 |
Last week, I had Florida sitting at 7.9 wins; now, a loss to Kentucky shaved off 0.8 predicted wins and led me to subtract three-quarters of another. So, yes: Things look dire.
Florida’s loss to Kentucky isn’t all of why some of those numbers moved, either. Colorado State’s wild first month now includes a win over Arkansas, so the Rams look significantly more like a threat to the Gators to me than they did a week ago. Mississippi State and Georgia both impressed in games against Power Five teams last weekend, and now look firmly like the class of Florida’s schedule.
But reducing Florida’s chances against LSU, Missouri, Vanderbilt, and even South Carolina? That has a ton to do with the Gators just not looking ready for even Kentucky last week — and if Florida can’t make good on home-field advantage against Kentucky, why should I give them any benefit of the doubt for it for those games?
(If you want to feel better, though: S&P+, which saw the Gators tumble, still has Florida covering a 20-point spread against Colorado State — and is very likely more bullish than I am on these Gators.)
As for Tennessee and Florida State staying the same: Tennessee did what it should have and blew out FCS East Tennessee State — last seen not dunking all over Florida in the 2017 NCAA Tournament — but we have already seen the Vols get worked by an FBS opponent.
Florida State, meanwhile, almost lost to Samford. You’re kidding yourself if you think that game should have moved toward the Seminoles in any projection based on last week, even with Florida’s faceplant factored in.
As ever, though: These are just my win shares. What are yours? How do they look this week?