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Win Shares Wednesday: Florida’s fortunes soar in late September

And, hey: This is posting on a Wednesday for a change!

Florida v Tennessee Photo by Donald Page/Getty Images

So I didn’t end up posting my updated win shares for the Florida Gators after the Colorado State game. Mea culpa.

But after a more significant win, Florida’s 47-21 trouncing of Tennessee last Saturday, there’s a lot more movement than you would have seen a week ago.

Florida’s 2018 Win Shares: September 26, 2018

Game Win Share Cumulative Win Shares
Game Win Share Cumulative Win Shares
Charleston Southern 1 1
Kentucky 0 1
Colorado State 1 2
at Tennessee 1 3
at Mississippi State 0.4 3.4
LSU 0.45 3.85
at Vanderbilt 0.65 4.5
vs. Georgia 0.2 4.7
Missouri 0.55 5.25
South Carolina 0.55 5.8
Idaho 0.95 6.75
at Florida State 0.6 7.35
Total 7.35

You may recall that when I last did this, before the Colorado State game, I had Florida down at just 6.3 wins for 2018; obviously, adding the rest of the wins from what were partial shares for the wins over the Rams and Volunteers helps, but seeing the way Florida played against Tennessee — in a night game, on the road, against an SEC opponent — also makes me a little more confident that this team isn’t just a good team against bad teams.

Then again: Tennessee is a bad team. So while I adjusted the win shares for every team on Florida’s schedule other than Vanderbilt and LSU upward, I didn’t make any truly dramatic shifts.

The closest I came to such a revision was for Mississippi State, which got worked by Kentucky every bit as thoroughly as Florida did, and which I imagine might now — having, my hunch says, overlooked Kentucky a bit with one of the biggest games in recent program history on the horizon — overcompensate by playing too on tilt against the Gators. An 0.4 win share for that game isn’t a massive departure from conventional wisdom — S&P+ puts Florida’s chances in that game at 32 percent (tab to Florida to see that) — and factors in my gut feeling that Dan Mullen and his assistants will have surprises in store for their former program and know the Mississippi State personnel better than Joe Moorhead’s staff knows Mullen’s scheme.

The small bumps elsewhere are also mostly commensurate with Florida stamping itself as actually decent. S&P+ is at least slightly more bullish on Florida’s chances than I am in literally every game beyond this weekend save the Idaho one, though my adherence to 0.05-point gradations explains at least a substantial part of that. (I have Florida at 0.55 for South Carolina; S&P+ is “more bullish” at ... 56 percent.) Notably, S&P+ actually thinks Florida has a 73 percent chance of a win at Florida State.

That’s a big number.

Anyway: These are my win shares. What do you think of them, and what are yours?