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Florida vs. Kentucky, Win Shares: Blowout opener boosts Gators’ chances

Florida’s big win — and a notable stumble or two elsewhere — shift this week’s Win Shares.

Charleston Southern v Florida Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images

Yeah, these should run on Wedesdays. So be it.

The Florida Gators began the 2018 college football season in fine form last Saturday, pummelling Charleston Southern in a 53-6 blowout that was arguably less close than the score indicated.

But it wasn’t just the Gators succeeding that helped bump up their win shares predictions for the 2018 season, as a couple of notable stumbles by two big-name teams on Florida’s slate have this week’s projections looking a little more rosy.

Florida Win Shares (Week 2)

Game Win Share Cumulative Win Shares Delta
Game Win Share Cumulative Win Shares Delta
Charleston Southern 1 1 0.05
Kentucky 0.8 1.8 0.05
Colorado State 0.9 2.7 0.05
at Tennessee 0.6 3.3 0.1
at Mississippi State 0.35 3.65 0
LSU 0.55 4.2 -0.05
at Vanderbilt 0.7 4.9 0
vs. Georgia 0.25 5.15 0.05
Missouri 0.6 5.75 0
South Carolina 0.65 6.4 0
Idaho 0.9 7.3 0
at Florida State 0.5 7.8 0.1
Total 7.8 0.35

Obviously, having a win on the books instead of a fractional win penciled in is going to bump up my win shares at least slightly, but the Gators’ win over Charleston Southern was impressive enough for me to increase my estimation of their chances in this week’s Kentucky game, next week’s Colorado State game, and that Georgia game down the road, if only slightly in each case. (It also helps to know that Florida’s suspensions were not major ones, and that no major injuries have been incurred as of yet.)

But bumping up Florida’s win shares for games against Tennessee and Florida State has more to do with those opponents. The Vols played West Virginia fairly well for one half, then choked on the smoke from the Will Grier-led Mountaineers’ afterburners, while the Seminoles sputtered on offense all night against Virginia Tech. And while Florida State has a lot of time between now and Florida’s visit to Tallahassee for Willie Taggart to get his Gulf Coast offense clicking and make sure its simplicity is lethal to opposing defenses, Tennessee plays Florida in just a fortnight, so I think that win share number is a little closer to inked in at the moment.

The only downward adjustment this week for another team comes from the other team on Florida’s schedule to play a Power Five opponent in Week 1: LSU, which handled Miami with ease in Houston, looks a fair bit better than I was anticipating, and I subtracted a bit from that win share as a result.

As ever, I’m curious about your win shares, too. Share them in the comments!